Climate science, impacts and adaptation
Every country and community is likely to be affected by climate change and potential related social, environmental and economic impacts. To find out more about climate change science, impacts of climate change and how we as Queenslanders can respond, use the links below.
- Climate modelling and impacts research
- Climate change impacts and adaptation
- Regional difference in climate change impacts
Climate change science
Significant scientific research efforts are underway at the international, national and Queensland level to better understand the causes and impacts of climate change.
International
There is a growing scientific consensus that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (the 'enhanced greenhouse effect') are changing the world's climate. The mounting evidence about the enhanced greenhouse effect and its potential consequences prompted 154 countries around the world to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 which aims to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the global climate system. Australia was one of these countries.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international authority on climate change, was formed by the World Meteorology Organisation and the United Nations Environment Program to advise governments on the latest climate change science, its impacts and possible adaptation and mitigation responses. It publishes a major state-of-the-science and climate impacts report every five years. The latest report, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 provides a comprehensive scientific assessment of past, present and future climate change.
Many things determine climate, including:
- the level of radiation from the sun
- the circulation of the atmosphere
- large-scale ocean currents and land features
- vegetation cover and soil moisture levels
- the composition of the atmosphere (in terms of gases and particles)
- volcanic eruptions (which release aerosols into the atmosphere).
The earth's climate is a finely balanced system; a small rise in atmospheric temperature could produce changes to the climate worldwide. As a result, the enhanced greenhouse effect is often referred to as "climate change" or "global warming". Climate change is "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods" (UNFCCC 1992).
Global average surface temperature increased by 0.7°C, and global sea level rose approximately 17cm in the last century (to 2005) (IPCC 2007). The IPCC (2007) concluded that most of the warming observed over the last fifty years is "very likely" (defined as more than 90% in probability) due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change.
Many reputable international agencies regularly provide updates on climate science and climate change. These include the United Kingdom Government's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which focuses on scientific issues associated with climate change; the PEW Centre on Global Climate Change; and the United Nations Environment Programme climate change portal.
National
Australia is continuing to advance its knowledge of climate change impacts and the underlying science research. Australia's Climate Change Science Programme, is administered by the Department of Climate Change (formerly the Australian Greenhouse Office), and is conducted in partnership with leading science agencies, including the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the Australian Academy of Sciences and universities and co-operative research centres. The programme addresses six key themes:
- understanding the key drivers of climate change in Australia
- improved climate modelling system
- climate change, climate variability and extreme events
- regional climate change projections
- international research collaboration
- communications.
Changes in climate are being experienced across Australia. Australian average temperatures have warmed by 0.9°C since 1950 (CSIRO 2007).
Under the IPCC's high emissions scenario, the annual warming over Australia by 2050 and 2070 is projected to be as high as 2.8°C and 5.0°C respectively (IPCC 2007).
Regional climate change projections for Australia and Queensland are produced by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology and are based upon the latest international climate change research including conclusions from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (2007). The latest report released in 2007, Climate Change in Australia (CSIRO 2007) provides the most comprehensive information available for Australia to date.
Queensland
Under a mid-range emissions scenario, projections for Queensland include an increase in annual warming of about 0.9°C in coastal areas and 1.1°C inland by 2030 (CSIRO 2007). Other potential changes for Queensland include: a tendency for less rainfall, more severe droughts, an increase in extreme daily rainfall, sea-level rises, more intense tropical cyclones and an increased risk of storm surge.
- The latest projections are available at Climate Change in Australia
- Further explanation of climate change projections available at Climate Change
- More information on Queensland's climate change impacts.
Last updated: 07 March 2008
