Environment and Resource Management

Human settlements: Population and settlement patterns

Authors

Peter Hutson, Mark Saunders, Phillip Kohn and
John Merrick, Department of Local Government,
Planning, Sport and Recreation

Reviewer

Glen Heyen, Queensland Treasury

Key findings

Queensland has experienced substantial growth in population, consistent with trends experienced in the last quarter of the 20th century, since the release of State of the Environment Queensland 2003. Net migration from interstate and overseas has made a major contribution to this growth, new arrivals being attracted by the state's employment opportunities, lifestyle, natural environment and relative housing affordability. At the same time, the past two years (2005 and 2006) have seen a small resurgence in growth arising from natural increase, which is contrary to the long-term decline in total fertility rates currently anticipated (Qld Treasury 2006).

Dealing with the combined impacts of population growth, population ageing and household change will add another dimension of complexity to policy development, planning and service provision over the next two decades. The impacts of these changes are only now beginning to emerge, and the pressures that they exert will become even more evident in the near future. If recent experience is a guide, meeting the challenges of simultaneous growth and change will rely on improved coordination of efforts across all levels of government, private industry, and the community at large.

Indicators and summary of status

Many of the indicators reported on in State of the Environment Queensland 2003 were based on data taken from the 2001 Census of Population and Housing.
As results from the 2006 Census were not available when this chapter was prepared, it has not been possible to update or comment on changes to these indicators. As a substitute, alternative measures are included where they are relevant and consistent with the 2003 indicators, and where a suitable data source is available.

Two new indicators have been added to this report to acknowledge the significance of population ageing and household growth. These indicators broaden the focus of monitoring population change away from individuals and towards the household, for good reasons. First, the significant shift occurring in the number, type and size of households is closely associated with population ageing; and, second, the impacts of these changes will be felt acutely in many areas where the household is the basic unit of demand and consumption, particularly in housing.

Indicator

Status of indicator

Total population

Increasing since 2003.

Population growth rate

Average annual growth rate for 2001-06
is higher than for 1996-2001.

Natural increase

Increasing since 2003.

Net interstate migration

Decreasing since 2003.

Net international migration

Increasing since 2003, despite low preliminary results for 2005-06.

Regional population distribution

Increasing in some areas since 2003.

Local Government Area population growth

Most population growth is still concentrated in South East Queensland. Growth is evident in coastal centres, peri-urban areas and mining communities since 2003.

Population ageing

Median age of population is increasing.

Household size and numbers

Growth in household numbers. Number and proportion of small households is increasing; average number of persons per household is declining.

Residential density

Number of dwelling approvals for medium-density housing has declined since 2003.

Integrated planning at the state, regional and local levels

Number of IPA-compliant planning schemes has increased since 2003; more regional plans in place by end of 2007.

Managing development

New State Planning Policies have been introduced since 2003.

Importance

Changes to the size and composition of Queensland's population continue to have a significant influence on the social, cultural and physical dimensions of the environment, as well as on the state's economy. Three key components of this demographic change will shape the location and nature of the state's settlement patterns for several decades into the future:

For the five consecutive years to 30 June 2006, Queensland had the highest population growth of all Australian states or territories, averaging 84 000 additional people each year (ABS 2006a). This population increase has been driven largely by net migration from interstate and overseas, as well as by natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths). The latest series of Queensland population projections (Qld Treasury 2006) indicate that high levels of population growth are likely to be sustained up to and beyond 2026. Queensland's population is projected to grow from around four million people in December 2006 to just over five and a half million by 2026 (medium series projections).

Continuing the trend of previous years, the greater proportion of the state's population growth for 2005-06 (66%) occurred in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, and most of the remainder occurred in larger coastal communities. Meeting the need to accommodate more people in most cases has led to an expansion of urban areas, and has generated additional demand for infrastructure, services and resources. These changes have placed pressures on the biophysical and economic dimensions of Queensland's environment, at a time when much of the state has also been subject to the impacts of unfavourable weather events, including periods of prolonged drought.

In line with the national trend, Queensland's population is ageing rapidly. A growing proportion of people from the large 'baby boomer' generation (those born between 1946 and 1965) is now of mature age, while many of the subsequent 'Generation X' (born between 1965 and 1980) are of prime child-bearing and working age. By 2026, most of the baby boomers will have reached retirement age, while Generation X will be moving into mature age. Since the baby boomers are a larger group than the preceding age cohort, and Generation X also outnumbers the following age cohort, the number and proportion of people who are of mature age and retirement age will increase markedly over the next two decades. The low fertility rates that have characterised the past 30 years are likely to continue, so that young people will represent a declining proportion of the state's future population.

An ageing population will have implications for the social, economic and natural environment, including:

To date, the primary focus of planners and policy makers has been on issues relating to population growth, but attention is now shifting also to the implications of population ageing and household formation. Recently released household projections (Qld Treasury 2007) indicate that the numbers, composition and size of households are likely to change significantly between now and 2026. Stated simply, the combined influences of population growth, population ageing and societal factors will result in more households containing fewer people than today. The number of households in Queensland is projected to increase by over a million by 2026; moreover, almost three in five of these future households will consist of only one or two people. Family households with children, once the most common household type in Queensland, are likely to be outnumbered by Lone Person households and Couple without Children households within the next five years.

Housing that is suited to the needs of an ageing population will be high on the list of future infrastructure items. Based on current trends, many older Queenslanders will opt to remain in their existing home and community for as long as possible, living independently or with the assistance of friends, family or carers. Others may find their current dwelling unsuitable and will seek alternative accommodation that is accessible, appropriate in terms of size, cost and maintenance requirements, and well-located in relation to services and public transport. The current absence of housing diversity in some areas means that such choices may not be readily available, or may be beyond the means of low-income households, unless action is taken to remedy the situation.

In conclusion, changes to population size, age and household structure will continue to have impacts on Queensland's settlement patterns over the next two decades. The challenge for governments, private industry and community providers is to plan and create communities that will meet the needs of future households, as well as meeting current requirements.

Pressure and condition

Total population growth and population growth rate

State of the Environment Queensland 2003 presented Queensland's estimated resident population growth for the period between the 1996 and 2001 Census collections. As data from the 2006 Census are not available at the time of writing, the ABS estimated resident population data for 2006 have been used in the following analysis. These estimates are preliminary data for the year to 30 June 2006, and may be at variance with the final results from the 2006 Census.

In the five years to June 2006, Queensland's population grew by an estimated 424 500 people, reaching 4 053 444 by 30 June 2006 (Table 9.1). This was higher than the growth for 1996-2001 (290 256 people), while the average annual growth rate of 2.2% also exceeded that for 1996-2001 (1.7%).

In the year to 30 June 2006, Queensland's estimated resident population increased by almost 76 400 people, an increase greater than that in any other Australian state or territory. The state's annual growth rate of 1.9% exceeded the national average of 1.3%, and was exceeded only by that of Western Australia (2.0%, or an increase of 39 900 people). Around two-thirds of Queensland's growth (66%, or almost 51 000 people) occurred in the south-east corner of the state, represented by the Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and West Moreton Statistical Divisions (SDs). By contrast, the North West and South West SDs had only minor population growth (245 people and 11 people respectively), while the population of the Central West SD declined by 97 people.

In percentage terms, the Gold Coast SD had the state's highest rate of growth (2.8%) in 2005-06, followed by the Wide Bay-Burnett and Mackay SDs (both 2.5%). Despite exceeding all other SDs in numerical growth (29 454 people), the Brisbane SD's percentage growth of 1.6% was relatively modest by comparison.

Table 9.1 Estimated resident population for Queensland and growth by Statistical Divisions, 2001-06

Statistical Division

Estimated resident population
at 30 June

Change in population, years to 30 June

2001

2005 (r)

2006 (p)

2001-06 (no.)

2001-06 x growth (%)

2005-06 growth (no.)

2005-06 growth (%)

Brisbane

1 629 133

1 790 921

1 820 375

191 242

2.2

29 454

1.6

Gold Coast

432 588

494 173

507 880

75 292

3.3

13 707

2.8

Sunshine Coast

247 167

283 549

290 201

43 034

3.3

6 652

2.3

West Moreton

65 718

69 798

70 904

5 186

1.5

1 106

1.6

Wide Bay-Burnett

236 492

257 800

264 201

27 709

2.2

6 401

2.5

Darling Downs

210 351

223 161

226 430

16 079

1.5

3 269

1.5

South West

27 002

27 084

27 095

93

0.1

11

0.0

Fitzroy

181 747

190 482

193 182

11 435

1.2

2 700

1.4

Central West

12 497

12 252

12 155

-342

-0.6

-97

-0.8

Mackay

137 539

147 894

151 572

14 033

2.0

3 678

2.5

Northern

190 266

206 289

210 943

20 677

2.1

4 654

2.3

Far North

224 163

239 336

243 948

19 785

1.7

4 612

1.9

North West

34 283

34 313

34 558

275

0.2

245

0.7

Queensland

3 628 946

3 977 052

4 053 444

424 498

2.2

76 392

1.9

Australia

19 413 240

20 339 759

20 605 488

1 192 248

1.2

265 729

1.3

(r) = revised; (p)= provisional. Populations for Statistical Divisions are based on 2006 Australian Standard Geographical
Classification (ASGC) boundaries.
Source: ABS 2007

Natural increase and net migration

The three components of Queensland's population growth are natural increase (number of births minus number of deaths), net interstate migration and net overseas migration. The proportion of growth arising from natural increase has been largely stable over the past ten years, while growth resulting from interstate and overseas migration has been relatively volatile (Figure 9.2). In cumulative terms, net interstate migration was the largest contributor to population growth in Queensland from 1996 to 2006 (around 289 200 people), and natural increase was the second largest component (around 280 100 people). Net overseas migration was the smallest component of overall population growth during that period, contributing around 220 300 people. More recently, however, overseas migration has been growing in relation to the other two components, and exceeded natural increase for the years 2002 to 2005.

For the year 2005-06, natural increase (29 238 people) made up 38% of total growth, up from 2002-03 (26.4%, or 23 738 people). This recent movement is largely due to a record number of births in the year to 30 June 2006 (53 455), which exceeded the 2001 to 2006 annual average of around 49 600 births a year. Despite this increase in births, it is not clear whether the long-term decline in fertility rates noted in the previous reporting period has been arrested.

Population gain from net interstate migration in 2005-06 was estimated at 25 774 people (or 34% of total growth), an average of around 500 people a week. Net interstate migration for this period, however, was around 13 400 lower than in 2002-03.

Queensland 's net overseas migration of 21 380 people in 2005-06 was down from the total for 2002-03 (27 122), accounting for just 28% of total population growth. It should be noted, however, that the 2005-06 resident population growth figures are preliminary estimates, and that the net overseas migration data will be revised by ABS in late 2007. As an illustration, the revised overseas migration component for the 2004-05 estimate was considerably higher (by around 12 500 additional people) than the preliminary estimate.


Figure 9.2 Components of population growth in Queensland, years to 30 June 1996-2006(r) = revised, (p) = provisional
Source: ABS 2006a and unpublished data


Population ageing

Figure 9.3 summarises changes to Queensland's age structure over the period 1971-2006, along with projected changes for the years 2006-41. Specific points to note about the past and projected trends are listed below.


Figure 9.3 Queensland's population by age groups, actual and projected, 1971 to 2041
Sources: (a) ABS 2006c; (b) Qld Treasury 2006


Regional population distribution

Queensland 's population has become more concentrated in the south-east corner of the state during the past five years, despite this area receiving a declining share of the state's population growth. In 2006, the south-east corner of Queensland (comprising the Brisbane, Gold Coast, West Moreton and Sunshine Coast SDs) was estimated to be home to around 2.69 million people, or two-thirds (66%) of the state's total population (Figure 9.4). (Note that the area referred to here is different from that covered by the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which includes the Local Government Area of Toowoomba City as well as these four SDs. Toowoomba City is part of Darling Downs SD.) This represents an increase of around 314 800 people since 2001, when the area contained around 65% of Queensland's population.

Despite the increase in its share of the state's total population, the south-east corner's share of population growth has actually declined over the past five years. Between 2001 and 2006, some 74% of the state's growth occurred in the south-east corner, considerably less than growth in 1996-2001 (81%). By contrast, all of the other east coast SDs (Far North, Northern, Mackay, Fitzroy and Wide Bay-Burnett) recorded an increased share of the state's population growth compared to 1996-2001. Much of this regional growth can be attributed to retirees and people seeking 'sea change' lifestyles in coastal communities, as well as growth in the tourist industry. More recently, an upsurge in coal mining activity in the Bowen Basin has attracted a considerable number of workers to the Mackay and Fitzroy SDs.

Regional growth by Local Government Area

Population growth between 2001 and 2006 (Figure 9.5) was highest in the Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Brisbane City (92 500 people) and Gold Coast City (73 800 people). Other LGAs in the SEQ region-including Pine Rivers Shire (26 200), Maroochy Shire (22 000) and Caboolture Shire (20 500)-also had high population growth.

Outside the state's south-east corner, the Cairns, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mackay and Hervey Bay LGAs all recorded significant growth (between 5000 and 30 000 persons) between 2001 and 2006. Away from the coast, LGAs on the Darling Downs including Toowoomba City, Crows Nest Shire and Jondaryan Shire also recorded strong growth. Some 43 of the 128 LGAs with time-series population data had relatively static populations (an increase of between 0 and 250 persons) between 2001 and 2006, while a further 22 shires experienced a population decline of between 0 and 300 people. Note that estimated resident population data for the 32 LGAs that were formerly Aboriginal or Islander Councils will not be available until the 2006 Census results are released in late 2007.


Figure 9.4 Estimated resident population (ERP) at 30 June 2006, share of state population, and share of state population growth by Statistical Division, Queensland 2001-06
Source: ABS 2007 and companion data. Map produced by DLGPSR, 26 February 2007.


Data and map are based on boundaries for Statistical Divisions according to 2006 ASGC.


Figure 9.5 Population growth by Local Government Area, Queensland 2001-06
Source: ABS 2007 and companion data. Map produced by DLGPSR, 26 February 2007.


Data and map are based on boundaries for Local Government Areas according to 2006 ASGC.

Household numbers and size

While population growth is driven by natural increase and net migration, other factors influence the number and type of households that are formed. Households represent the living arrangements that people occupy at a given time, so the type of household that they occupy will vary according to their life stage and relationship to others. From early life as a child in a family household, most people will enter into one or more subsequent living arrangements throughout their lives. Such choices include living alone as a Lone Person household, as part of a group of unrelated individuals (Group household) or as a member of a family grouping, with or without children.

Household arrangements are closely associated with life stage and age; a noted decline in the occurrence of households with children is evident among people who are moving towards retirement age. Older populations are therefore more likely to have increasing numbers of small Couple without Children households ('empty nesters') and aged Lone Person households. Progressive liberalisation of social and institutional constraints, along with changing personal aspirations, has also contributed to a reduction in the proportion of larger households over the past three decades.

One consequence of population growth combined with population ageing is that growth in the number of households is occurring at a faster rate than growth in the number of people. While Queensland's population grew by around 1.09 million people, or 37%, between 1991 and 2006 (Table 9.2), the number of resident households increased at a faster rate (52%, or an additional 549 000 households). The reason for this apparent anomaly is that average household size is slowly declining, falling from around 2.8 persons per household in 1991 to an estimated 2.5 persons per household in 2006.

The maturing of the large baby boomer cohort over the next two decades is likely to see a marked increase in the number and proportion of smaller households, such as Couple without Children and Lone Person households. By June 2026, Queensland is projected to have around 2 397 500 households, an increase of some 1 014 700 households from June 2001 (Queensland Government 2007). On a percentage basis, projected growth in the total number of households between 2001 and 2026 (73%) will greatly exceed projected population growth (54%) for the same period, with the average household size declining further to around 2.3 persons per household in 2026.

The number of smaller households in Queensland has increased steadily for some time, the total of Couple without Children and Lone Person households having more than doubled between 1991 and 2006 (Table 9.3). These two categories will also represent much of the household growth that will occur over the next two decades, the combined number of Lone Person households and Couple without Children households increasing from around 872 300 in 2006 to 1.46 million in 2026.

At the same time, smaller household types continue to represent an increasing proportion of total households. Growing from 41% of total in 1991, Couple without Children and Lone Person households together are projected to make up over three out of every five households (61%) by 2026.

Residential density

Residential or dwelling density is the number of dwellings within a given area (often expressed as dwellings per hectare). For a given area, an increase in dwelling density will come about as a result of net gain in dwelling numbers (dwellings constructed less dwellings demolished), and may be indicative of urban consolidation. The count of private residential dwellings in an area usually includes some that are unoccupied at a given time.

Residential density is often confused with population density, which is a measure of the number of persons living within a given land area, usually expressed in terms of people per square kilometre. Although population density and residential (dwelling) density would appear to be closely linked, growth in the number of dwellings is not necessarily contingent upon a corresponding increase in population. Housing demand is driven by changes in the number of households needing accommodation, and the number of households in Queensland is increasing at a faster rate than the number of people because of smaller household sizes.

Since the numbers and proportions of one- and two-person households are growing, it could be expected that demand for smaller dwellings will also increase, leading to higher residential density in urban areas. This is not the case for Queensland overall, during the years since the last reporting period. Despite a continuing decline in the average number of persons per household shown in Table 9.2, data for dwelling approvals show that larger detached houses continue to be constructed at a higher rate than smaller dwelling types (Figure 9.6).

The proportion of total building approvals granted for Other Dwellings (which include attached and semi-detached dwellings such as townhouses, flats, units and apartments) is a measure of building activity at higher urban densities. In 1991, only 16.0% of all residential dwellings in Queensland were townhouses, flats, units and apartments, increasing to 19.7% in 2001 (EPA 2003). As Figure 9.6 shows, the number of approvals for Other Dwellings in Queensland rose sharply from 2001 to a peak of around 15 240 in 2004, then declined to 12 400 in 2006. The year to June 2006 saw approvals for Other Dwellings decline from 36% of total approvals to 33%.

Table 9.2 Change in resident households, population and average household size, Queensland, 1991-2026

Year

Resident households in
Queensland

Resident population in
Queensland**

No. of persons per house-hold

Households

Growth

% growth

Persons

Growth

% growth

1991 (a)

1 050 533

-

-

2 960 951

336 915

-

2.8

1996 (b)

1 232 117

181 584

17

3 338 690

377 739

13

2.7

2001 (c)

1 382 800

150 657

12

3 628 946

290 256

9

2.6

2006

1 599 500*

216 700

16

4 053 444 (d)

424 498 (d)

12 (d)

2.5

2011

1 801 200*

201 700

13

4 428 138**

374 694

9

2.5

2016

2 008 600*

207 400

12

4 823 408**

395 270

9

2.4

2021

2 207 000*

198 400

10

5 211 995**

388 587

8

2.4

2026

2 397 500*

190 500

9

5 583 956**

371 961

7

2.3

Sources: (a) ABS 1998; (b) ABS 1993; (c) ABS 2002; (d) ABS 2007 and unpublished data.
* Queensland Government 2007. **Qld Treasury 2006. Pink shading denotes projected data.

Table 9.3 Lone Person and Couple without Children households as proportion of total, Queensland, 1991 to 2026

Household type

Households 1991-2001

Projected households 2006-26

1991 (a)*

1996 (b)*

2001 (c)

2006 (c)

2016 (c)

2026 (c)

Lone Person

182 300

248 300

329 600

418 700

574 300

722 900

Couple without Children

239 900

306 300

370 700

453 600

608 600

739 700

Subtotal

422 200

554 600

700 300

872 300

1 182 900

1 462 600

Lone Person and Couple without Children
as percentage of total households

41

46

51

55

59

61

Total households

1 017 800

1 204 000

1 382 800

1 599 500

2 008 600

2 397 500

Sources: (a) ABS 1998; (b) ABS 1993; (c) Qld Treasury 2007.
*Note that numbers have been rounded. Changes to ABS household classifications over time make direct comparisons difficult for years prior to 2001, and the data shown for (a) and (b) should therefore be used with caution. Pink shading denotes projected data
.


Figure 9.6 Number of building approvals for Other Dwellings, and approvals for Other Dwellings as percentage of total building approvals, Queensland, years to 30 June 1998 to 2006
Source: ABS 2006b and associated tables


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Last updated: 09 February 2009

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